New truck tariffs disrupt supply chains, but USMCA trucks exempt

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On October 17, 2025, former President Donald Trump signed a proclamation imposing new tariffs on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks. The 25 percent tariff will apply to trucks across Class 3 through Class 8, while imported buses will face a 10 percent duty. This policy, set to take effect Nov. 1, 2025, is framed as a national security measure under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

This shift marks a return to the trade policy approach from Trump’s first term. It prioritizes domestic industrial capacity and uses tariffs as leverage. While aimed at bolstering US truck manufacturing, the move raises concerns across freight, manufacturing and logistics sectors. Businesses are managing slim margins, unpredictable sourcing and capital constraints. The sudden introduction of steep duties adds pressure.

Earlier tariffs under Section 232 focused on steel and aluminum. This new round expands the scope into finished commercial vehicles. That shift signals a broader recalibration of US trade policy, especially given ongoing freight and global trade volatility.

How the USMCA exemption could reshape sourcing decisions

An important component of the tariff structure is the exemption for trucks that comply with the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement. Vehicles that meet the regional value content requirement, currently at 64 percent, are not subject to the new tariff.

Mexico exported more than 159,000 heavy-duty trucks to the US in 2024, with nearly all destined for American buyers. Trucks that fail to meet USMCA content thresholds will be hit with the full 25 percent tariff. Those that qualify can avoid it, which incentivizes North American supply chains and better documentation of origin.

This is expected to influence how manufacturers and fleet operators approach procurement. Truckmakers may relocate more operations to the US or restructure parts sourcing to meet content rules. These changes require capital and time, especially for equipment as complex as Class 8 tractors or specialty vocational vehicles.

What rising costs could mean for US fleets and buyers

Fleet operators are preparing for rising costs. The price of Class 8 trucks has already climbed, and previous steel tariffs were linked to increases of 9 to 12 percent for materials. One analysis projects the new tariffs could drive total costs up by as much as 24 percent by 2026.

Higher costs may lead operators to delay truck purchases, extend fleet lifecycles or shift to used equipment. The impact may be most acute for smaller fleets with less pricing flexibility. Larger companies may be able to absorb some increases, but even they face procurement and budgeting challenges.

Parts are also subject to the tariffs, which could disrupt service networks and maintenance operations. The industry is still recovering from global shortages. New cost burdens could slow recovery and reduce supply chain predictability.

Domestic manufacturing credits and industry reactions

To counterbalance some of the tariff impact, the administration extended a domestic production credit through 2030. Truck manufacturers assembling vehicles in the US can receive a credit worth up to 3.75 percent of the retail value. A similar program is being developed for engines and components.

Reactions have been cautious. The American Trucking Associations raised concerns about reduced new truck demand if carriers hold off on purchases. Some suppliers are re-evaluating production plans and inventories in anticipation of tariff-driven shifts.

The credits offer potential upside for US manufacturers, especially those already invested in domestic capacity. But inflationary pressures and labor shortages may limit the speed or scale of any expansion.

As the policy takes effect, attention will turn to enforcement. Verifying USMCA compliance requires documentation and supplier-level validation. Companies will need to prepare for inspections, audits and potential challenges related to classification or content misalignment.

Trade responses from Mexico or Canada remain uncertain. While USMCA may insulate the policy from some pushback, diplomatic and commercial responses could develop if market disruption escalates. The first quarter of 2026 will reveal how the market absorbs the new rules. That will help determine whether procurement, production or delivery models begin to shift in meaningful ways.

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Transport Topics