Shipping moves early as tariff tensions reshape trade

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Retailers and freight operators are rewriting their supply chain playbooks as 2025 ushers in a mix of rising tariffs, regional volatility and cautious consumer sentiment. A new Wells Fargo report underscores how fast-shifting trade policy is changing the timeline, financing and geography of domestic freight movement.

The headline finding: many US companies front-loaded their inventory in early 2025 to get ahead of tariffs. That surge in early imports, combined with ongoing port congestion and cooling demand from North America’s neighbors, has left freight operators facing a much more complex environment than in previous years.

Planning that starts before the tariffs do

Wells Fargo’s 2025 Supply Chain Report confirmed what logistics insiders had suspected for months. Importers rushed freight into the US before the April 2 tariff enforcement date set off by the Trump administration. The result was a major spike in demand for supply chain financing, with volumes up 10 to 15 percent over the same period last year.

Jeremy Jansen, head of global originations at Wells Fargo Supply Chain Finance, said the bump was largely driven by the auto parts sector. Many of those companies brought in product ahead of the tariff deadline, then shifted their focus back to domestic inventories.

“We are seeing the use of this supply chain financing up 10 to 15 percent over the last 90 days versus the same period last year,” Jansen said during a briefing call. “At this time, the bulk of the supply is domestic. It is not overseas goods coming into the retailers.”

That shift points to a wider recalibration in sourcing and delivery timelines. Freight entering the US is increasingly staggered based on tariff exposure and shelf-life planning, which has made traditional monthly forecasting less useful for operators.

Disruption alters where freight moves

Another notable shift is geographic. The report highlighted changing traffic patterns between US coasts. While the West Coast once dominated inbound logistics, East Coast ports are now gaining ground. John Crum, head of specialty equipment finance and leasing at Wells Fargo, said May saw East Coast shipments briefly exceed those on the West.

“Our customers have the trucks and trailers that are moving all the stuff we’re talking about,” Crum noted. “Things were more heavily weighted on the East Coast in May than they were on the West Coast, or at least it was at parity.”

He added that pandemic-era lessons about resilience and flexibility have resurfaced in supply chain strategy. Companies are more willing to shift volumes between ports and modes of transport depending on lead time, risk exposure and tariff vulnerability.

Financing reflects broader shifts in trade relationships

The Wells Fargo report noted softness in imports from both Canada and Mexico, indicating that US trade with its closest partners has cooled slightly. While not dramatic, the declines mark a contrast to earlier expectations that nearshoring would buoy North American volume through 2025.

“China has been very flat over the last 90 days in terms of the invoices that we’re financing for the products that are making their way to the US,” Jansen added.

Some of the slowdown may reflect a recalibration of supplier relationships after years of pandemic-era shocks. But it also suggests that shippers are still searching for optimal sourcing routes and contract terms in an increasingly fragmented trade environment.

Retailers stay nimble in a volatile cycle

Despite the crosscurrents, US consumer demand has stayed surprisingly strong. The Commerce Department reported that retail and food services sales reached $726.3 billion in July, a 3.9 percent increase year over year.

“You had some retailers who were able to bring inventory in and front-load as much as possible so they could get ahead of potential tariff impacts,” said Adam Davis, managing director at Wells Fargo Retail Finance. “You had others that just hit the pause button.”

That divergence reflects a bigger theme: the gap between supply chains that can adapt quickly and those that cannot. Early importers who bet on tariffs arriving as scheduled now hold the advantage of stock and pricing flexibility. Meanwhile, those who waited risk thinner margins and potential delivery disruptions.

Sources:
Wells Fargo